Hezbollah Weakened, Iran Crippled, Syria Defeated: Lebanon has a Chance to Cut Its Own Path. Will It Seize It?

Iran is weakened and vulnerable after a 12-day war with Israel. Hezbollah, Tehran’s main ally in Lebanon, had already lost a lot of its fighters, arsenal and popular support during its own war with Israel in October 2024. Changing regional dynamics give the Lebanese state an opening to chart a more neutral orientation and extricate itself from neighboring conflicts that have long exacerbated the divided and fragile country’s chronic problems.