The latest hot political talking point is Flagler County/Palm Coast is “over-building,” and that this “over-building” must be reigned in. The slippery slope continues from there. These new homes and the residents in them are going to clog our roads, and there are no jobs for them. These horrible new residents will, presumably, pollute the environment and destroy open space, as well. Simply put, our region is going down in flames. We must deal with “over-building.”
The hype train has left the station…here’s why we’re not on it:
The reality is Flagler County is not “over-building;” whatever that means. I chalk the term up to election year politicking. The truth is every county in Florida has thousands and thousands of future homes approved and ready to eventually be developed. 95% of those future homes will not be available for sale on the housing market within four years.
It’s the business of building and residential land development in America (not just Florida). What most folks don’t consider is that it takes years (and millions of dollars) to transform a piece of land into a neighborhood. Usually, four years is the earliest the first home in a subdivision is ready for the market, and it takes years beyond that for the remaining houses in the new neighborhood to become reality.
When we hear: “Thousands of homes are permitted and ready for development.” We say: “Yeah, we know, it’s normal. Stop freaking out.”
And lets focus on “the market” for a moment. Companies or individuals that have millions of dollars to invest in creating neighborhoods will not move forward on building those neighborhoods until they are satisfied with market conditions. (I ran a homebuilders association in a past life; trust me on this one.) With Florida’s consumer sentiment at near-decade-lows (67%), and mortgage interest rates at 7-8%, it’s highly unlikely that the thousands of homes that “could be” developed, would actually be reality (aka visible) anytime soon. You could probably get a Bachelor’s degree faster than a neighborhood can be built with the first home available for sale.
As for the housing market, it’s still strong locally and operating at slightly-above normal levels. The Flagler County median housing price is $365,000 (August 2023). Local Realtors sell approximately 200-250 homes per month in Flagler County. The cost of housing is a legitimate local issue, as median sales prices have gone up $100,000 over the last three years.
This isn’t a plea to build more housing, though it may sound that way, because our region does need to build more housing.
Consider this:
- Up to 80,000 net new residents could call Flagler Home between 2020 – 2040 (Source: UF BEBR Institute, High Growth Trend)
- Most demographic consultants agree on a general range that has an average of 2.4-2.5 residents per home. (2021 Census estimate = 2.49 residents/unit)
- The math is simple once the research is done: If Flagler County really does grow by 80,000 net new residents by 2040, we need approximately 33,000 total new housing units (houses, apartments, duplexes) during that same time.
Is Flagler County/Palm Coast over-building? NOT. EVEN. CLOSE.
Author:
Greg Blose, MBA, IOM
President & CEO, Palm Coast-Flagler Regional Chamber of Commerce
I think your main concern at this point… Is the fact that the infrastructure is not up to par. We don’t have the schools, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, etc. We have a very strong police force yes so that we are grateful at least I am.
Growing is expected. we know ITT had expectations and it’s more or less written gold.
Infrastructure is there, upkeep may not be. That’s has EVERYTHING to do with elected officials and tax cuts. Cutting taxes has consequences, and it’s unfunded road repairs/maintenance. New homes pay FULL property taxes and impact fees.
New homes in new developments pay impact fees not homes built in established neighborhoods. Why does the city raise the impact fees if they don’t have enough money to maintain the infrastructure?
I think your main concern at this point… Is the fact that the infrastructure is not up to par. We don’t have the schools, the teachers, the doctors, the nurses, etc. We have a very strong police force yes so that we are grateful at least I am.
I think your main concern at this point… Is the fact that we will not be able to have medical care, schools and teachers. Our roads need better care.
We have a great police department, and for that I am happy and proud… Don’t forget, count them in and our fireman
We just moved to Palm Coast 2 months ago. We bought a home that was built in 1991. I have seen many plots of land bulldozed to the ground to build new houses nearby. My concern is this: Where are the animals supposed to live? Where are they supposed to go when their homes have been destroyed for new development? I have seen deer, bobcats, etc. There are homes for sale that have been here for some time. I am so happy that we bought one of those.
In today’s ever-evolving world, supporting local community development has become more than just a commendable endeavor—it’s a catalyst for growth and progress. I, myself moved to Flagler County six years ago with my family and simply love it here. We need growth if not our community will become stagnant, and what happens when stagnation happens we dry out and die as a community. Growth is essential and needed, it is vital we support local community development its a direct influence on economic prosperity.